Washington Area Coincident Index of Economic Indicators

The Coincident Index is designed to reflect the current state of the Washington Area economy.  As such, its turning points occur at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity. It includes four components that tend
to represent current economic activity.  These are:  Total Wage and Salary Employment; Consumer Confidence In The Present; Domestic Airport Passenger Boardings; and Estimated Retail Sales of Nondurable Goods.

The chart displaying the Historical Series includes a 12-month moving average.  The moving average helps you to interpret changes in the index. 
If the index is consistently above its moving average, the economy is in an expansionary mode.  On the other hand, if the index is consistently below its moving average, the economy is currently in a period of contraction.

As the historical series at the right shows, the Washington Area experienced  economic slowdowns beginning in July 1990 and ending in May 1992 and again in February 2001 and ending in November 2003 .  During these times, the Coincident Index remained consistently below its moving average.

The Coincident Index also responded to the "Blizzard of '96" (January 6 - 8) when the Washington Area was blanketed with 17.1 inches of snow.

Components of the Coincident Index

Most Recent Six Months

Percent Change From Same Month Of Previous Year

Historical Series